鈥淢aking predictions is difficult, especially about the future.鈥� Sounds like a Berra-ism, a Yogi Berra malaprop, and he may have said it, but historically it鈥檚 credited to nuclear physicist Niels Bohr.
In our lifetime there have been many predictions that have failed to live up to their promise, good or bad. Experts successfully tested atomic bombs and used them to devastate Japan and end the war. The nuclear complex promised us unlimited electricity from atomic power, too cheap to meter. We did get a lot, but the promise of electricity being too cheap to meter has failed miserably. Part of the problem is that in order to develop a bomb they concentrated on using uranium that has serious disposal problems. Other physicists not focused on bombs would鈥檝e developed systems on thorium which proponents claim is much safer, but is useless for bomb making.
In their haste to develop atomic power, many of the plants, such as Fukushima and Chernobyl, were built using boiling water reactors. These reactors circulate the radioactive primary coolant through the entire system so if anything goes wrong, the radioactive steam might leak, but the containment is not a pressure vessel. Other nuclear systems utilize pressurized water, gas or molten salt in the primary circuit; the energy is then separated through a heat exchanger to a secondary circuit to the turbine. The secondary circuit does not become contaminated and the primary circuit is limited to a containment pressure vessel. The U.S. Navy, France and many utilities, using pressurized water reactors, have had no incidents that harmed the public.
Fusion is the latest version of the unlimited energy for all theory. It has been just 5 years away our entire lifetime. The latest success was an experiment in which a few watts of input energy caused a reaction of more energy than the input, but only if you ignore the kilowatts that were needed to operate the plant to conduct that experiment. This is sort of like crediting the spark plugs for an engine鈥檚 output horsepower.
Hydrogen has a similar unfulfilled promise. The silly part of that is that although hydrogen is probably the most abundant element in the universe. It鈥檚 mostly busy being water. To separate the hydrogen from the water requires more energy than you can get back by consuming the hydrogen. Hydrogen is no more energy source than a battery is. It鈥檚 just a storage medium.
For most of 1999, after becoming dependent on computers, we feared what would happen if software could not recognize any dates after 1999 鈥� that everything would shut down, airplanes would fall out of the sky and the stock market would collapse. The calendar rolled over and almost nothing happened. For most software, 2000 was just as much a date as 鈥�99.
Self-driving cars were predicted by the experts to be five years away 15 years ago. There has been a sort of success with self-driving taxi cabs in a controlled environment, but they鈥檙e still not ready for prime time. It seems they are too dependent on their memory rather than their ability to analyze their environment the way a human driver would.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing the light at the end of the tunnel鈥� for 12 years 鈥� remember Vietnam?
Artificial intelligence has fascinated pundits for the last year. Some predict a wonderful future the way the Nazis predicted the workers鈥� paradise of National Socialism. How did that work out? Others predict a form of Armageddon where AI robots will take over and make humans expendable in 3 years. Scientists, engineers, editors, lawyers and online FAQ-ridden customer service have used versions of AI for years, but it still takes a human in the loop somewhere to finish up. Humans 鈥� and some other mammals 鈥� have a unique ability to adapt when confronted with something never seen before.
I鈥檓 still waiting to see a robot, no matter how talented at the acrobatics they put on, that can walk into an unfamiliar kitchen and make a simple cup of coffee.
Some people credit almost everything happening today to a prediction of Nostradamus 500 years ago, but when you check on the actual prediction, it鈥檚 so vague 鈥� he was French 鈥� it can be stretched to fit anywhere.
Putin predicted that Russia would conquer Ukraine in just a few days, four years ago. He鈥檚 no closer now than he was 3 1/2 years ago and Russia is going broke. Another president said he would end that war in one day.
Any soldier knows that even the best battle plan 鈥� prediction 鈥� does not survive the first contact with the enemy.
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer and safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a biweekly column for 91直播. Feedback is encouraged at obenskik@gmail.com.