91直播鈥檚 visitor industry is heading into 2026 with only modest growth expected, as steady but slow gains from U.S. mainland travelers are offset by weakening international demand, rising costs and growing uncertainty tied to global tensions and increasingly disruptive weather.
State officials warn that without stronger, clearer marketing and messaging 鈥� particularly after major storms 鈥� Hawai risks losing ground to competing destinations at a time when visitor confidence is fragile.
That cautious outlook was underscored Friday at Tourism Day at the state Capitol and earlier this month at the Hawai鈥榠 Tourism Authority鈥檚 Spring Tourism Update. State officials and industry leaders said back鈥憈o鈥慴ack, Kona- low storms this spring, followed by another major storm last week, have compounded broader challenges such as high airfares, geopolitical conflict and reduced long鈥慼aul airlift.
Jennifer Chun, director of tourism research at the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, said visitor arrivals in 2026 are forecast to grow only slightly year over year.
鈥淚t鈥檚 very, very modest growth,鈥� Chun said, noting significant variation by market. Visitor spending is expected to rise somewhat faster, largely because of higher prices rather than increased volumes.鈥淐osts keep on going up,鈥� she said.
Airline data show total seat capacity to 91直播 through October is projected to rise 4.8%, driven almost entirely by domestic routes, which are up 7.1%. Capacity from most major international markets 鈥� including Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand 鈥� is declining. Australia shows the steepest drop, down 25.9%, while South Korea is among the few international markets posting growth.
The U.S. mainland remains 91直播鈥檚 strongest source market. The outlook for mainland arrivals is 5.05 million this year, up 0.9% from 2025, with visitor spending expected to increase 3.3% to just over $10.8 billion.
East Coast arrivals are forecast to rise 1.2% to 2.43 million, with spending up 3.7% to more than $6.85 billion.
Neighbor island airports are expected to outperform Honolulu in 2026, reflecting continued strength in domestic travel and dampening in international demand. International capacity at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport is projected to drop 8% 鈥� 13% from July through October.
Kahului Airport is projected to be the state鈥檚 fastest鈥慻rowing airport, posting gains every month and a summer surge of 14% to 17% from May through July. Growth there is entirely domestic, driven by expanded service from Dallas鈥揊ort Worth and Alaska Airlines鈥� growth from San Diego and Portland.
Lihue Airport is forecast to post the most consistent growth statewide, with capacity rising from 5.6% in January to around 20% in June and July and remaining near 17% through October.
Kona International Airport leads early 2026 year鈥憃ver鈥憏ear growth, peaking at 20.6% in March before easing into the fall.
Hilo is expected to regain limited mainland service for the first time since United Airlines ended flights to Los Angeles.
Southwest is launched nonstop service between Hilo and Las Vegas this month with a small trial during Merrie Monarch and will resume service at a higher scale from August onward.
The capacity outlook comes as state leaders move ahead with a tourism recovery campaign following recent storms. The Governor鈥檚 Office said it supports working with HTA on a marketing effort to restore traveler confidence and encourage visitors to keep or rebook trips. Tourism losses from the storms appear substantial and statewide, though officials declined to provide estimates, citing incomplete data.
Caroline Anderson, HTA鈥檚 interim president and CEO, said the Hawai鈥榠 Visitors and Convention Bureau has submitted a statewide marketing recovery plan totaling about $2 million that HTA has approved and is awaiting funding. The plan includes targeted support for North Shore activities.
鈥淲e are at a critical time,鈥� Anderson said at the spring update. 鈥淲e are facing many challenges, from the perception of the impact from the storms to economic and geopolitical uncertainty.鈥�
Lawmakers said weather鈥憆elated messaging is increasingly important as social media amplifies localized damage into statewide deterrents. Rep. Adrian Tam (D鈥慦aikiki, chair of the House Tourism Committee, warned that misleading narratives can quickly undermine travel demand.
Rather than saying areas are 鈥渙pen for business,鈥� Tam suggested encouraging visitors to 鈥渟upport local businesses,鈥� framing travel as a way to help communities while reducing online backlash.
Sen. Lynn DeCoite (D, East Maui鈥揢pcountry鈥揗olokai鈥揕anai鈥揔ahoolawe), chair of the Senate Committee on Economic Development and Tourism, said the storms highlight the need for better coordination and planning.
鈥淭ourism remains a key part of 91直播鈥檚 economy,鈥� DeCoite said, 鈥渂ut it must continue to evolve with intention 鈥� supporting local communities, respecting resources and reflecting 91直播鈥檚 values.鈥�
DeCoite said messaging failures after the Lahaina wildfire were top of mind during a Tourism Day roundtable with Gov. Josh Green.
鈥淥ur messaging did not go well when we did Lahaina. It was very erratic,鈥� she said. 鈥淣ow we are all together and we want to support everything together.鈥�
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai鈥榠 Hotel Alliance, which organized Tourism Day at the Capitol along with the American Hotel and Lodging Association, stressed that maintaining 91直播鈥檚 competitiveness requires sustained investment in tourism marketing, particularly during downturns.
In 2018, he said, HTA鈥檚 budget exceeded $80 million and was largely dedicated to marketing. Today, HTA鈥檚 $63 million budget also must fund destination management.
鈥淚 support destination management, but I believe we should bifurcate the funds,鈥� Gibson said. 鈥淥ur marketing is not keeping up with other destinations.鈥�
Investing in tourism pays off, he said, noting the industry generates $21.75 billion in revenue, supports more than 222,000 local jobs, and contributes $3.04 billion in state taxes 鈥� about 30% of general fund revenues.
As competition intensifies, marketing strategies are shifting. Aaron Sala, president and CEO of the Hawai鈥榠 Visitors and Convention Bureau, said second鈥憅uarter U.S. marketing has moved from inspiration to guidance, emphasizing cultural credibility and differentiation.
The 鈥淗awai鈥榠 Stays With You鈥� campaign highlights experiences unique to the islands and features artists, musicians and community leaders through ambassador鈥憀ed storytelling.
鈥淭his moves beyond transactional marketing into relationship鈥慴uilding,鈥� Sala said.
International recovery remains uneven. 91直播 continues to rank as the most desired overseas destination among Japanese travelers, but high prices are suppressing bookings, said Eric Takahata of Hawai鈥榠 Tourism Japan. Expedia data show 91直播 ranks first in destination desire but seventh in actual bookings, with packages about 40% higher than in 2019.
Canadian arrivals fell 11.6% last year but still outperformed Canada鈥憈o鈥慤.S. travel overall, which declined about 25%.
Recovery from other international markets remains constrained by high costs, limited airlift, fuel prices and currency volatility.
Jadie Goo, HTA鈥檚 acting chief brand officer, said the global travel environment has become 鈥渕ore challenging and more complex,鈥� as natural disasters, economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflict converge.
鈥淏ottom line: you snooze, you lose,鈥� Goo said. 鈥淐lear, timely and consistent messaging is critical. This is not a time to pull back.鈥�