91Ö±²¥

Hurricane season is coming — and the likelihood of an El Nino cycle only will increase the probability that one could hit the 91Ö±²¥an Islands.

El Nino cycles are characterized by weaker tradewinds, which pushes warm water east toward the West Coast of the mainland and can change global weather patterns.

Robert Ballard, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service’s 91Ö±²¥ office, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that El Nino cycles increase hurricane activity in the Central Pacific region, but he emphasized that doesn’t necessarily mean one will hit the islands.

“The possibility just goes up, in general, of having tropical cyclone activity near the islands and almost certainly more than normal in the Central Pacific Basin,” he said.

He added that there have been El Nino cycles with a lot of hurricane activity that just didn’t hit the islands while there have been La Nina cycles, which have fewer hurricanes, where a cyclone did affect the islands. El Nino and La Nina cycles simply tip the scales of probability, he said.

“In a relatively quiet season where you only get one or two (cyclones), if that one or two comes near the islands, then it really doesn’t matter if it’s above normal or below normal, it’s a threat to the islands,” he said. “You want to get prepared for hurricane season no matter what, even if it’s expected to be a below normal season.”

As of Friday, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said there was a 61% chance of an El Nino cycle emerging between May and July. 91Ö±²¥’s hurricane season typically occurs between June and November, according to the University of 91Ö±²¥ at Manoa.

A strong El Nino, coined a “super El Nino” by some meteorologists, has a 25% chance of occurring, the Prediction Center said.

Ballard emphasized that both predictions are not a given and that models will be able to have more accurate predictions by the end of May.

“We don’t want to give folks the incorrect assumption that we are headed toward an extremely strong El Nino or super El Nino, because we really don’t know that yet,” he said. “We’ll have to wait and see.”

A “super El Nino” would increase the number of hurricanes in the region and would increase the probability of one hitting the islands even more, Ballard said.

El Nino cycles don’t only impact hurricanes, Ballard said.

Ballard said El Nino cycles make for “extremely dry” winter seasons.

“As we get into fall and winter, the big question on our minds will be are we getting into a serious drought and a major fire situation, but that’s a long way down the road. A lot can change,” he said. “Right now, we’re just wanting folks to be aware that El Nino is likely to happen this summer, and if it does, then we’re likely to see more tropical cyclones in the basin in general, and that could lead to more 91Ö±²¥ threats.”

Only two recorded hurricanes have actually made landfall in 91Ö±²¥: Hurricane Dot in 1959 and Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which both tore through Kauai, according to the National Weather Service. Hurricane Iniki was particularly damaging as a Category 4 storm with winds up to 160 miles per hour, according to the National Disaster Survey Report at the time. It killed seven people, injured more than 100 and caused $1.8 billion in damage, the report said. Hurricane Dot landed on Kauai as a Category 1 with 105-mile-per-hour winds and gusts up to 125 miles per hour. Kauai’s sugarcane crop sustained $2.7 million in damages, the agency said,

But hurricanes don’t have to make landfall to have catastrophic impacts.

Hurricane Iwa in 1982 never made landfall but killed one person, destroyed 2,345 buildings — 1,927 of them houses — and left 500 people homeless, according to the National Weather Service. Three other deaths were indirectly related to the hurricane’s aftermath. The Category 1 storm had winds exceeding 100 miles per hour and storm surge of 30 feet totaling $312 million in damage across Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.

More recently in 2018, Hurricane Lane approached Oahu as a Category 5 storm before sharply turning west and weakening to a tropical storm on its sixth day just 120 miles of Oahu, according to the National Hurricane Center’s tropical cyclone report. The storm caused one death — a man drowned after jumping into a stream to save a dog, the report said — and caused severe flooding on 91Ö±²¥ island. More than 100 structures were affected and there was at least $20 million in damage to public infrastructure. Maui’s infrastructure damage was more than $2 million, the report said. Lane also fanned the flames of three wildfires across West Maui, with 2,000 acres burned and 21 homes destroyed, and costing more than $4 million in damage.

91Ö±²¥ State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu told the Star-Advertiser that 91Ö±²¥ typically avoids direct landfall because warmer water draws most hurricanes to hover south, and sometimes east, of the islands. But with warmer ocean temperatures, he said, it’s possible that more hurricanes will head north.

Chu said El Nino years have increased hurricane activity within 250 miles of Honolulu, based on his analysis, which means everyone needs to prepare for the possibility. The impact of a hurricane would be devastating to the islands, Chu said, especially after the back-to-back Kona lows in March caused around $700 million in damage and $300 million in lost economic activity, according to Gov. Josh Green’s latest estimate.

Otherwise, the state will be in big trouble,” Chu said. “We had the Lahaina wildfires in 2023, we had the Kona lows in 2026, we don’t want another hurricane.”

The Kona-low storms last month highlighted the need to be prepared for hurricanes, which likely would have even more devastating effects if one were to make landfall or come close.

County emergency officials told the Star-Advertiser that emergency shelters should be a last resort. One of the best things residents can do is prepare a plan and their home for a hurricane.

City and County of Honolulu Department of Emergency Management director Dr. Randal Collins said most homes built after 1995 should be able to withstand hurricane force winds because of the building code, but that homeowners should double-check and take action if needed. Having a plan is key, he said. Collins encouraged those with unsafe homes to contact family members, friends or workplaces with safer buildings before a hurricane is forecast.

He added that everyone should have around two weeks’ worth of supplies stocked in case a hurricane knocks out power. He said the Kona-low storms showed the island’s vulnerabilities with its dependence on imports, especially when it came to emergency supplies.

“Now is the time to prepare,” Collins said. “Don’t take it lightly. This is a real situation and we are very fragile out here in the Pacific.”