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PITTSBURGH — When future Hall of Fame signal caller Aaron Rodgers and the QB-desperate Pittsburgh Steelers came together last offseason, everyone involved anticipated it would be a one-and-done season that would push both sides closer to their next chapters.

For Rodgers, Pittsburgh presented an opportunity to finish his career with a stable franchise after two tumultuous years with the New York Jets. For the Steelers, who were underwhelmed by the 2025 quarterback draft class, Rodgers provided a potential bridge to what was supposed to be a much stronger 2026 crop of QBs.

The best-case scenario: Rodgers would help end the narrative about Mike Tomlin’s playoff shortcomings. Second-best: The Steelers would bottom out, putting them in position to draft a high-end passer.

The worst case: A nine- or 10-win season in which the Steelers squeaked into the playoffs only to look like the least-qualified team there — just good enough to preserve a meaningless non-losing-season streak but nowhere close enough to making a realistic run at the Lombardi Trophy.

We all know which scenario played out. Yet, here we are one year later, in essentially the same place. Rodgers once again ended an unnecessarily drawn-out courtship by agreeing to another one-year deal with the Steelers, league sources confirmed to The Athletic. The decision to run it back has been met with considerable skepticism — and reasonably so.

The big question as they start down this path a second time: Will Rodgers be the bridge to the future or a roadblock?

In a vacuum, if you’re considering only the 2026 season, one could make a strong argument that Rodgers is the best of some unappealing options.

Even in his early 40s, Rodgers still has elite arm talent. He has an unparalleled football IQ. Last season, he passed knowledge down to younger players and, at the line of scrimmage, consistently got the Steelers into the best plays. Perhaps more than anything, he was an incredibly willing and hands-on mentor to rookie QB Will Howard from the first day at mandatory minicamp, something that should benefit 2026 third-round pick Drew Allar. While there’s a chance Howard or Allar becomes a franchise QB one day, neither is ready to step in if the goal is to win right away.

At the same time, Rodgers isn’t the magician he once was. As his mobility declines, he’s been unable to extend plays to attack downfield and has appeared unwilling to take some of the contact necessary to create explosive plays. As a result, the Steelers relied on a simple formula in 2025: Get the ball out of Rodgers’s hand faster than anyone else, throw it shorter than anyone else, and create more yards after the catch than anyone else.

That style put a bit of a ceiling on the offense. Against average or below-average defenses, Rodgers was typically good, sometimes even showing flashes of his old brilliance. Against top-tier defenses with elite pass rushers, he was often poor.

While that decline in performance should be expected from all quarterbacks, Rodgers’ limitations made the dropoff far more precipitous than his peers. The Steelers played eight games last year against defenses that finished top-10 in fewest yards allowed: the Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns (twice), Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. In those games, Rodgers completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 171 yards per game with seven touchdowns, six interceptions, a lost fumble returned for a touchdown and a sack taken for a safety. He posted an EPA per dropback of negative-0.25, according to TruMedia, and a passer rating of 75.2.

Theoretically, the Steelers’ roster is in better position than it was a season ago. It should be, considering the team worked with a league-high 12 draft picks and went into free agency in the top third of the NFL in salary-cap space.

If Rodgers and the Steelers are going to raise their ceiling in Year 2, several offseason moves need to pay dividends.

Receiving corps

The Steelers never had a legitimate WR2 on their roster last year. Instead, general manager Omar Khan believed that some combination of Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson and Jonnu Smith could fill that role in aggregate. By the end of the year, the team was scrambling to sign Rodgers’ old friend Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Adam Thielen, who retired months later. And while Khan thought Austin could be WR2, the league viewed him much differently: On the open market, he received a one-year, $1.5 million deal with no guarantee he’ll make the New York Giants’ roster. Smith, released before free agency, remains unsigned.

Rodgers should step into a better situation this year. Michael Pittman Jr. has been a WR1 at points in his career and will now take on WR2 responsibilities. Stylistically, he’s a bigger-bodied possession receiver who could become a consistent chain mover for Rodgers’ quick-game style.

Behind him, second-round pick Germie Bernard brings the yards-after-catch potential that’s a fundamental part of the West Coast offense. Maybe more importantly, he was considered one of the most NFL-ready receivers in this class, which gives him a better chance to contribute early with a QB who expects precision and professionalism.

The McCarthy factor

While Rodgers has played in a variety of schemes, he enjoyed some of his best seasons alongside West Coast offensive believer Mike McCarthy. The change at play caller will be evident in a number of ways.

One small example: Arthur Smith was probably the NFL’s most tight-end-friendly coordinator, deploying 12 (two tight ends) and 13 personnel (three tight ends) at some of the highest rates in the league. McCarthy’s emphasis on 11 personnel (three wide receivers) better fits Rodgers’s skill set and his preferences.

To put it more bluntly: McCarthy has called winning plays in the Super Bowl. Smith has been bumped down to the college ranks.

The offensive line

This group is full of flexibility, young potential and question marks. Asking multiple first- and second-year players to block for a quarterback who will turn 43 in December is a big gamble. But, because Rodgers does get the ball out of his hand quickly and is an expert at identifying pressure pre-snap, he’ll protect this group as much as they’ll protect him. By the end of the season, with respected offensive line coach James Campen leading the development, maybe this group is in the right spot.

The defense

Perhaps the biggest part of the equation will be how the Steelers play when Rodgers is sitting on the bench. As it currently stands, the Steelers will dedicate more salary-cap space to defense than any other team for the fifth consecutive season. According to Over The Cap, their $188.5 cap hit is about $15 million more than the second-highest spender, the Ravens. The Steelers did not see the return on investment under former defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and Tomlin. Patrick Graham will need to take a loaded, albeit aging, group and get it to play closer to its collective paycheck.

Best-case scenario: Rodgers uses an improved supporting cast and a more established play caller to jolt the offense to new heights, and the defense plays like it did when it nearly lifted Duck Hodges to the playoffs (in 2019). The old gunslinger makes the most of an AFC without an obvious favorite and rides off after one last trip into the playoffs, this one coming with a postseason win.

Worst case: The Steelers remain stuck in the middle — always in the playoff conversation but never realistically a Super Bowl contender. They don’t learn anything more about whether Howard or Allar can be their next quarterback, as neither gets any in-game experience. And Rodgers pushes the Steelers close to the postseason, but further from a position to draft the QB who will end this cycle in 2027.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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